Love 'em or Hate em but you can't beat 'em
I am really talking about the US of A.
Goodness, I have such strong interests in current affairs.. oh well.. yes, I have been researching even more since I am a consultant for North American land investments and I parked so much money there. But i have always been fascinated by the USA. For their ingenius ways of winning.
But this entry is purely my own opinion..I did blog controversially about the US before..if you wanna read about the Gulf War...Ach well.. that was some silly stuff =)
Bear in mind that each time I write political account, I don't have stacks of research papers in front of you. Purely opinions of what I think is happening and if possible, a bit of wit and zest, har har..cause you know, most of the time, media paints whetever picture they want to paint, whatever the real truth is. The 'truth' is painted by whoever has the money and is getting the money.
Since everyone has differing opinions, there is no right or wrong until it is one day proven and experienced by self, similar to faiths actually. So.. let's just take it with a pinch of salt.. and in the case I get into trouble, (which is not very likely.. cause you know I am so full of shits , they'd understand)... then I guess I know I am probably right..
So I don't care if I am right..but I am gonna empty my brains now..
Issue #1 - The Cold War then and the Cold War now
Go and watch the Charlie Wilson's war. I mean we all know that the Russians had to go down because they were to big a threat to the US economy.
Sneaky and smart as the US were, they started the cold war and they won it. By camouflaging themselves and by being at the right time, at the right place, placing money (guns, tanks, resources at the right hands.., they beat the Russians.. now they are no longer a threat.. Well much less of one anyway. Though some unfinished business become something else but that's another story.
The Cold war was then. Now it has shifted slightly to the South of Russia? Hmm..
I don't see why people are making such a big fuss over China's 'booming' economy.
Yes yes.., many tall buildings now.. less kampung (though geez.. numerous empty unleased apartments that little buyer would take over..). business thrives.. more China millionaires..open to the world..more trade.. index growth in 2007 showing is China incredibly overpriced now..because I think it was 20% truth and 80% hype..
You know people right.. they like it when the news kanna goreng.
Of course they are growing, who isn't? The whole world is growing. I am just saying it is not as rosy as people are painting it.
China is heavily dependent on US and the Europe for business.
One day, Mattel decided to discontinue one of its toy line as it was no selling well or it wasn't passing the QC... a couple of factories in China closed down and thousands of people lose their jobs. Ok no worries.. got other lobangs..They can move to some clothing factories that get paid pennies to make a certain Polo Tee with a horse sign on it.
So, labour cost in China per shirt - $1
material cost in China - $2
various overheads in China- $2
shipping and other logistics -$2
- - total cost $7
ooppppss... It reached the stores and it cost $78
Sorry, forgot to mention.
Mr Polo Tee gets $25 for royalty, his company's expenses and overheads (investors' dividends, salaries, office lease, shop lease.. blah blah..) $36, tax to US govt $10
Hmmm... that's just a polo tee.. should I go on about iPods?
Who's getting the real money. Seriously.
Every one dollar China gets for a piece of product, how much does the mother company get?
You do the math. And you think China can beat them one day? Very long way to go lah. They are not even civilised/ well -mannered enough to be ready to live in a first world country..
Of course China has the most people in the world, we all know that and one day they might just one day dominate and all of us will have small eyes. But if you think they're damn powerful now.. let's look at the stats..
GDP for 2007 -
1 United States 13.79 trillion
2. Japan 4.346 trillion
3. Germany 3.259 trillion
4. China 3.249 trillion
That's another 10 trillion more to go. No lah.. not yet. Taking over Germany should be anytime now. Japan is in some serious threat, I must say. Look at Japan's Nikkei, I haven't an index graph flatter than Kate Moss' chest before.
But taking over the US. Hmm.. long long way..
But now that you see everyone kinda watches the world blur by and see their money shrinking in the stock market. People also start to read series of 'shocking' news of the economy of the world..
I would say.. relaxx...patience.. it's just part fo the process..
- I just received emails saying that you shouldn't be buying sandals made in China either, the chemicals will corrode your skin. Oh, don't buy some toys made in China either, poisonous and some contain some sex drug (what a sicko)..
Oh.. also.. Warren Buffet has pulled out his fortune out of China you know ya? Sorry, time to go somewhere else but thanks for ride, Warren might have said. The world has 'goreng' ed it well, many has benefited and now it's time to go somewhere else...
Oh, don't support the Olympics either, they're no civilised to the Tibetans.
Oh geez.. don't get China made medicines and diet pills .. like SlimTen . Oh wait.. don't buy the chickens from China also.. they said got bird flu!!.. Oh.. don't buy the eggs from China too.. they're fake.
OH MANG! DANG lah!! What can I buy from China now?
I wonder what sort of reputation they are getting for their products. Oh, it broke after a week, is it made in China?
Hold on.. that's not true.. Of course you can buy made in China stuff, else you'd be deprived and naked.
But please buy those with foreign label, one that says maybe Billabong.. or Ralph Lauren.. or GAP..or Coach..or Microsoft.. or Apple... they sure pass QC and you don't need to doubt the quality knowing how stringent they are with QC. Last but not least, this way, at least the bulk of the money still goes to some deep pockets in the West.
I really can't imagine feeling shiok buying a very good quality leather bag with intricate tasteful design, with a 'NIAOBAI' written on it. Branding dude.. China needs a Brand manager, along with a quality and ISO manager.
But maybe it will improve in time, but they better catch up. Of course, there's no stopping for these giants to go to Vietnam or Indonesia to outsource their products though. Especially if their quality is continously bad and prices keep rising. One day, Africa could be more utilised too.
Let's talk about human stats in China, it used to be an overwhelming percentage growth, but thanks to the one child policy, it is way under control (in fact a little too under control), now there are 6 China man to one China woman. I wonder how they are to reproduce properly.
But in terms of volume, no worries... still billions of them.. and they get rich..
But then again,..The rich Chinese who become instant millionaires have packed their bags and moved to Canada, US, Singapore and Australia to live. Bye Bye China. Bye bye smelly toilets and dusty streets. I'll come back for holiday.
OK I am totally generalising.. beg your pardon.
You know I actually loved going to Shanghai. I was there so many times, shopping and eating, drinking free beer..but also busily getting diearhoea and breathing problems. Move to Shanghai? I'd say no thanks..
Today, I read about Tibet feud again.. Oh just what the hell are they thinking. leave the poor tiny place alone lah.. peaceful people.. in peaceful country, .. and they have no oil!! let alone shoes or hair for goodness sake Leave 'em alone already,
If this jeopardises the Olympics, they're screwed. China is at the edge of the cliff. Be careful.
"Sports and Politics should be 2 separate entities"... as quoted from ST today, well, when you're talking about a world event that size, how can there not be politics. Everything is politics.
Pull out your money out of China already, buy US.
Issue #2- Subprime what Subprime.
Incredible as you may think, but for huge economies like US, it is healthy and necessary to 'cleanse' their economy once in a while. It's like the carbon cycle to the environment..
They need to go around a cycle and reach a time where everything is low.. where money can flow in again from outside, ...Also, where the low dollar can help them pay off some loans.. at low rate.. yay...
Let's see if the trick did it.
Temasek and GIC flowed gazillions of dollars into US, our country's precious precious reserve flowed into Citibank, Merrill L, US property, lands, funds. The Arabic moneybags followed suit and I am sure many others did, non-disclosure.
So, who has power over who now??
Hmm.. I have a friend who is cocksure that the US will fall, then I think he should plan on moving out of Singapore. We have so much at stake there. Ar.. how can it be possible, the world will fall when US falls. No more McD, no more Starbucks, no more Microsoft, no more Apple, no more outsourced jobs, no more films.. (sobs..), no more Hollywood..(sobs...).. no more jobs.. no more money..
Look left and right.. US companies are everywhere. Can't deny that.
A kampung will only become a town when Mc Donalds step in.
And goodness knows why McD's main business is real estate and not FnB.
So now, half the world, (including out tiny little country's sovereignity) parks a big bulk of their lifetime savings in US. Imagine this scenario:
"Hello.. I need a bit more help for this current project.. can you pull some strings? ... Hmm.. is that so??.,,,, But you invested so much in us, your people at stake too, ... you know.. you gotta help.. else.. you know.. it may not be so good for either of us.. oh.. uh huh? Oh, yeah.. that'd be good... Thanks!"
Hey!!! It's just good business, ain't it.
Well, 9% p.a Citibank coupon ain't bad at all for GIC, and when the sub prime, 'recession' is over, of course property prices will rise again, and with so much more capital now..Citi will be in the pink of health again. It's just a cycle.. money in.. money 'out', money in..
We should have all predicted this subprime coming long ago.
How can you give bleeding unqualified/semi-jobless/not-so-rich people loan for house?? On top of that, give them high interest with exponential growth too.. chey, I also know one day they cannot pay liao..No need economist to study.
Good business tho.., but of course bo pian a bit of people hurt on the way.
When actually, money only flowed from one hand to another during recession. How could it evaporate into thin air?
Oh, Why Bleedin' Good Business again?
Let me summarise in my signature crude way....
Ok.. first of all, these smart, rich fellas in the institutions thought : "let's give out more loans.. (hey that's what banks do!! You think they make money by giving you 0.25% p.a?? NO! They earn by giving charging you 4-24% interests on your loans!)
SO.. ok.think of those people who can't buy house cause they don't qualify for the 'prime' rate.. let 'em buy.
"Sure?" .. Yeah.. "Sure.."
Let em buy.. Let the developers pocket the money. We give out the loan.... but.. aha! Let's give them extra interest... so that you know.. maybe they work harder to earn more.. haha! that'd be funny.. but no worries.. you know, cause in the event they can't pay up the loan..(which I think they can't anyway.. we slowly increase the rate k?...)... , we then take over the asset!! Win-win situation.
Genius ain't it? In the meantime, let's get this amazing ROI from the sub prime mortgages, and let's sell them to the rest of the world.. we can get cut from it, leverage, expand and lend out even more!! How's that??
So, for many many years, these poor people struggled to pay their home loans which went up like the Himalayan curves, and many rich people got richer accross the globe pocketing the good business!
Finally, the inevitable came.. and the people got tired. One by one gave up trying to catch up with the rising interests and one by one lost their houses. The bank saw it coming.. ok time to take over the houses... oh now, it's slightly lower value liao.. it's ok! Will go up again.. We just write down.. it's ok.. Ocht!! our stock drops faster than a tart's knickers on a Friday night... it's ok!!! We can buy more! Oh.. wait waiitt.. we get more moneys flow in again, I am sure that THEY will support. They all want a 'piece of me'. (And they said Britney knows nothing about politics)
And They did, who wouldn't? Having a stake at the world's biggest economy, coming in at the lower points?
Even the princes of Arabs would mortgage his yachts and palaces to buy Citibank shares. (not that it happened, of course, he has extra money for this.. duh)
Oh dear.. looks like it got a it overwhelming. Oh dear, lots of people accross the ocean in Asia lost so much money.. oh why their index follows our index?? Why do they follow us so much? Oh poor thing. But no worries..hang in there..
We gonna cut the rates.. we gonna start all over again. These people can rent houses for now or move to cheaper places and buy cheaper houses ... move to Texas, Phoenix or something..(duh.. else what? They stay in the trees?? these people earn, just not enough to catch up with our interests..) , but this is temporary, soon they will be fine.. Slowly, we're back in business again.. Slowly.. but surely.. we will loan again...(geez. of cos we gotta!). we start low.. and prices will go up again.. and ah.. yeah the future may not seem very bright to you. But it seems so for us.
Ocht! Some buddies support us from accross the oceans, more money on our side now. We have even more support now. Yay.
Anyway, we accross the globe are waiting for opportunities in US to park into. (I personally see millions flowing into US real estate from Singapore through my company, every month. It's amazing. People are seeing the value, Singapore may be at the peak now, it's selling time (though noone wanna buy), but for US, it's buying time!! ). OK, back to US.
Noone from overseas wanted to buy BearStearns today. I think it's because of the feng shui. How can we buy into a bank with BEAR on it. Bear market is just not good.
Don't worry, BS is safe now, JP Morgan big bro bought over, right pocket to left pocket
Wait a minute, our dollar is pretty low now.. let's pay off some country loans to maybe the Japanese and some others (You know that US borrows shitloads of of money and roll it). Let them eat the low dollar...perfect timing.
Oh dear, seems like now Boeing is finding hard to trade with us, our dollar is too low. How how? Ask them to lower the Euro la!! We need to pay off some loans first..
Aye, many people in Europe cannot do business with us as well as they used to!! Hmm..how about, ...Stay low for awhile? How about we drive these buggers out of business first?? *ding* C'mon, we're like, the biggest consumer in the world. We perservere for a while and when they're under water, let's buy over!!
Oh, wait a minuteee.. that China is now having trouble with Tibet.. what are they trying to do??
Should we help? I mean we funded so many hospitals and civilisations accross so many third world countries. We are the big brother. We should help Tibet.. should we??
Anyway, I really don't think China is ready to host the Olympics. You know that all of us were never gonna let it happen anyway right?? Our athletes are gonna fall ill with bird flu, smelly toilets.... there will be bad sanitation.. bad manners.. and the thing they've been doing to tibet is just mean lah.. even the Premier is SOOO mainland China he dares to accuse the Dalai Lama like that..
Sigh... Hmm.. you know.. when others see crisis.. we see opportunity.
What do you see?
---HAHA!! I can't believe I thought of all those. Sorry guys.. I am very very imaginative.. It may make ridiculous sense.. but I enjoyed every bit of it.
I think the US is total genius! They will go long way.. we shall see. I stand on my point. A couple of years from now, things look would ridiculously better. The best investments are long term. These sort of disturbances are just part of business. Opportunity creating.
OK!!!! Before I get arrested... Most the above are of course fictions.. purely my own weird imaginations..Don't believe a word of it. Thanks!!!
